|Statement||Ali F. Darrat and Mahmoud Haj.|
|Series||Working paper -- 0139|
|LC Classifications||Microfiche 2009/52268 (H)|
|The Physical Object|
|Number of Pages||32|
|LC Control Number||2009321571|
The concept is useful in that it can help to explain the persistence and amplitude of cyclical fluctuations in a modern economy. Although the financial accelerator seems intuitive--certainly financial and credit conditions tend to be procyclical--nailing down this mechanism empirically has not proven entirely straightforward. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. This process mimics two series whose cyclical fluctuations are countercyclical such as output and unemployment for instance. Indeed, under the null hypothesis of serial correlation common features, there exists a vector δ ′ = (1 1) whose premultiplication gives y Cited by: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations John H. Cochrane The Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 1. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at 4 The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment.
All in all, while the destabilizing impact of NFA following cyclical shocks is clear-cut for debtors the evidence on the cyclical impact of NFA on creditor countries is not conclusive. 15 Overall, the results imply that the NFA position in debtor countries (both highly-indebted and not) improves the current account balance, contributing to. We further analyse the stability of the steady-state equilibrium and the transitional dynamics toward the equilibrium and show that, depending on conditions, there could be cyclical fluctuations such that the financial structure changes periodically between speculative finance and Ponzi finance. Economic theory and evidence at the industry, firm, and household levels suggest a number of channels through which financial depth can affect volatility. Yet, in contrast to the finance-growth literature (Levine et al., ), there is little robust empirical evidence at the aggregate level of a causal link between finance and volatility. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages Rothman, Philip, " Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers , C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York.
Definitions. A seasonal pattern exists when a series is influenced by seasonal factors (e.g., the quarter of the year, the month, or day of the week). Seasonality is always of a fixed and known period. Hence, seasonal time series are sometimes called periodic time series.. A cyclic pattern exists when data exhibit rises and falls that are not of fixed period. Ramey, G. and Ramey, V. A. () Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth. American Economic Rev – Romer, P. () . In this paper, we examine price dynamics, cycles and lead-lag relationships between private and public commercial real estate markets. We utilize wavelet technology to capture both the frequency and the time variations of a time series. We find that the long-run trend of prices in public commercial real estate markets is steeper than that of private commercial real estate markets. The results indicate that (1) financial shocks have a significant adverse effect on economic outcomes and that such shocks were an important source of cyclical fluctuations since the mid; (2) uncertainty shocks, especially those implied by uncertainty proxies that do not rely on financial asset prices, are also an important source of.